5/21/2020 - Every Day Feels Like Tuesday

[MUSIC - "MY BONNY LIES OVER THE OCEAN"] [RADIO TUNING]

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CARRIE NORDLUND: Hello and welcome to Mark and Carrie. Hi, Mark, how are you?

MARK BLYTH: It seems that I find you in exactly the same place I left you last time.

CARRIE NORDLUND: Yeah, I just stayed here in an amber mold, yes.

CARRIE NORDLUND: Yes. So listen, I was using a GIF generator on my phone. And I don't know if you've got the same one app, but if you basically do-- what is it-- lockdown work schedule, or someone like this, in a GIF generator, there's this great GIF of a stick figure sitting at a desk in front of a computer going like this: toddling around, going to a bed, lying down, and then just getting up and doing that endlessly.

CARRIE NORDLUND: I mean, that's what it feels like.

MARK BLYTH: That's what it feels like.

CARRIE NORDLUND: Yeah. So I saw somewhere, someone said every everyday feels like Tuesday. I think that's kind of right, because it's neither excited nor beaten down because it's Monday, or just--

MARK BLYTH: No, absolutely, absolutely. So we have a garden in the back of the house. And last year, at the end of the season, when all the furniture for outdoors goes on sale, I managed to get a giant table. It's, like, 18-foot-long or something like that. So we're considering doing socially distant hanougts where we occupy different ends of the table from each other outdoors.

CARRIE NORDLUND: Yeah. OK, well, that's a really good idea.

MARK BLYTH: So that'll either work, or I'll be dead in two months. We'll find out! This is [INAUDIBLE]. And we can talk about-- because that trade-off, that you find out in two months or be dead in two months, this is where we're going nationally. But anyawy, where do you want to get started in this week's review of awfulness?

CARRIE NORDLUND: Well I also wanted to say something about, Mark and I are friends as well, and Martin has this wonderful grill and fixes these awesome meals on it. So I'm just thinking, as you laid out that picture, of a really-- I've been dying for a grilled whatever meal, and especially Memorial Day weekend, a typical time for grilling. So I was just imagining placing myself at one end of your patio furniture.

MARK BLYTH: Well tonight, actually, I'm not going to grill, oddly, even though it's a really nice night. I've been rummaging through the survivalist freezer, getting stuff out of the freezer that needs to get out. And it tells you how long this has been in there, because of course, St. Patrick's Day was almost prepandemic. So I found a hunk of roast beef-- no, not roast beef, corned beef-- and defrosted it. So I'm going to do corned beef and then some grilled asparagus. And I'm going to stew of the corned beef and a porcini mushroom stock, because of course I managed to get some dried porcini mushrooms in the mail. So this is kind of like high-end survivalism, cooking stuff that's out of the freezer with dried mushrooms.

CARRIE NORDLUND: That you got in the mail.

MARK BLYTH: Which I got in the mail.

CARRIE NORDLUND: Yeah. So we'll do a sharp turn here to transition to what's next. Well, I mean, more unemployment claims-- people are able to actually-- or, more people are getting through those terrible through online experiences and phone calls. I think the nearest numbers that I saw were 40 million unemployment claims in the US. The shape, the return, all of the stuff that we see on the headlines, one wonders-- and we've been musing about this, about the reopening, and how that will impact things. And on our last podcast, guess I was much more skeptical of what this would do. But in reading since Georgia and Texas, for example, Florida have opened, there hasn't been-- although I don't know there's been enough time-- there hasn't been a huge spike in those states. So potentially, they're laying the first data points for us.

MARK BLYTH: It certainly is. I mean, hats off to our southern cousins for basically going their own way. Because what they're doing is a giant natural experiment in which epidemiological model is right. So either you have model number one, nobody's been exposed and there's a long delay in the onset of the infection, and in four to six weeks' time, the sound you'll be listening to is Texas health service crashing to the ground. Right? Or alternatively, it's much more widely spread than we think. There's many more asymptomatic carriers.

So the denominator, if you will, if the numbers expand, the lethality goes down. And most of us get by, and this opening up basically spreads the beginnings of herd immunity. Then we don't get clobbered in November, and then we can imagine a way out of this. I really hope the second one is right. It disturbs me that, basically, all the public health people that I know, whenever you tell them that story, they just look at you as if you're slightly off your head and go, no, sorry, that's not going to happen. But that's the bet that we're making. And I hope that that's right.

Now that pertains to the unemployment numbers. I mean, these are unbelievable in the sense of not being believable, because it's incredible numbers. And we've never been this unemployed. I mean, it's astonishing. And we really don't know what's going to happen.

So let's go with those two models, right? Let's assume that the opening up and it works model work. The key thing is the behavioral response. Right? How freaked out are you? Are you going to go back to a tiny little sushi place that's in a basement with 20 tables stuck together, even if things are going well? Probably not.

Which means that a lot of businesses like restaurants crammed into places-- how are we going to do massage therapy? That's one of the ones I want to think about, right? This is not a luxury. For many people, this is a medical necessity. Are you going to end up going to basically the dentist, where the dentist will now have full PPE? Will your massage person have full PPE? Right? Even in the best of circumstances, a lot of the jobs that Americans did on an hourly basis that were paid hourly, with very few protections-- they might not be coming back. We just don't know yet.

And then we were talking about this element, get into this again if you want-- let's go from there to what happens to real estate. So let's say a third of all restaurants don't come back. Let's say that in some cities, restaurants are, let's say, 20% of all commercial real estate. So then all of those things fail. I mean, rents have to drop.

In the long run, you can imagine a world in which people don't go eating at restaurants, and that helps, and then that's how we get through. But that valley, it's going to be rough getting through it. So yeah, I see those unemployment numbers. And I ignore the level of the stock market, and I look at the level of unemployment. And I think that's what we need to pay attention to.

CARRIE NORDLUND: Well, and I have two reactions to what you just said. One is, the president said yesterday, I think, that if there is a second wave, we're not shutting down again. So he's certainly moving towards the herd immunity point of view. And then the second would be around what the political wranglings are for the unemployment numbers, in that Congress-- the House, at least-- has passed a rather ambitious bill to put money in people's pockets. And it's gummed up with the Senate and the Senate majority leader.

And part of this is because I try not to read the news too much because I want to cry after I read it. But you just kind of think DC is even more of a swamp and even more disconnected than usual from what is actually the suffering of individual people that are out there, regular, you see them out there on the street, they're everyone that we know. And Congress just kind of seems to be totally removed from that reality in some way.

And so it's hard for me to fathom exactly how it is that that disconnect is happening when we can't get a bill passed. We can't get a third [INAUDIBLE] for all [INAUDIBLE].

MARK BLYTH: My cynical way of thinking about that bill is the following: it's a piece for the Republicans to play prudence, even if they're not doing it. So the Democrats are rushing to spend again, we need a cause, we've already spent $3 trillion, et cetera, et centera. So that plays to their advantage. Right?

More cynically, the Fed has basically agreed to buy any and all financial assets. The [INAUDIBLE] effectively bailed out the companies that are making investments on all of their constituents. And then as far as they're concerned, mission accomplished, move on, right? So they don't see the need for it.

Now, the need for it really comes in at the state and local level. Now, the federal government's strategy is, we're not going to talk about this anymore. There's no Dr. Fauci in the morning. We're done, right? And we're dumping it on the governors. If the governors do well, we'll claim credit. If they fail, we'll blame them. And their budgets are falling off a cliff, to the point that they're cutting back basic Medicaid and stuff like this in order to actually maintain the spending on COVID while cutting higher education, which is the bizarre thing that is going on across the nation. So yeah, the focus becomes state and local funding. And they're going to have to bite the bullet. They're going to have to address this. So that's where we are.

But just one other thing, and what you said made me think of this: the press coverage here is really odd in the following sense. There was a big story on the BBC News yesterday that featured live footage of a five-mile long food bank queue in upstate New York. I read about this this morning, in a newsletter that goes around from London. And apparently it was shocking and close to people who were just cracking up and real anger and all that stuff. Have you seen any of that?

CARRIE NORDLUND: No.

MARK BLYTH: Right. So basically, the European media is basically able to go in and say, look, I'm in upstate New York. Things are falling apart. Right? And this is pretty serious. Meanwhile, here, you have total disconnect. No, we shouldn't be spending anymore. Everything is fine. Right? That disconnect is profound, absolutely.

CARRIE NORDLUND: So your point is right on. I mean, I did read the front page of The New York Times and The Washington Post this morning, and it was all about Trump's firing of inspector generals generally happens at Friday night between 9:00 and 11 o'clock. So what are we expecting tonight? What did President Trump do yesterday or early this morning? What did he do this week? I mean, all the protocol--

MARK BLYTH: Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, nothing else.

CARRIE NORDLUND: Yeah. One thing that I was thinking about when you mentioned state-local is we work at an institution of higher education. And they really seem to be on the front line of making some really important policy decisions in terms of reopening or not reopening for the fall. And I think Cambridge has decided to be online for the fall. NYU has said they're going to be some sort of hybrid. The Cal State system has said they're close through the fall. And Brown has yet to make a decision. I don't know if Harvard has made a decision, but certainly more and bigger university systems are starting to make decisions.

And it's been interesting to me to see, of course, the bipolarity of those decisions. But also that really is a signal, I think, to states and the local cities where these universities are: what does the train look like throughout the rest of the calendar year?

MARK BLYTH: No, absolutely. And the remarkable thing is-- and I know we spoke about this before-- that it's not just on the state level. It is very much on the local level. And if you're in a small state like Rhode Island, then you can have really effective coordination between business and government and so on and so forth. And people don't like the lockdown. I am not saying it's a good thing. Please end this tomorrow, right? I mean, Carrie, come on over give me a hug. It'd be wonderful. But we just can't just now, right?

And I was driving around, and I had NPR on in the car. My usual response is to switch it off immediately, but I kept it on. And it started off, and it was the sort the standard Trump press op. And then I got back in the car off doing something, and it was Gina Armando's press conference. And the contrast was astonishing. I mean, it's not to say yeah, yeah, Gina, whatever.

But just somebody who could actually communicate that this is a problem, here's what we're doing about it, here's what we're trying to do about it, here's where the problems remain, yeah, this is where we screwed up, this is what we're trying to get better, this is where we're learning lessons. And then you compare that to what you get coming out in the White House. And then the media wants clicks. The media wants eyeballs. What are you going to concentrate on? Day-to-day competence or Fire and Fury? So they go with the Fire and Fury, every time.

CARRIE NORDLUND: Well I think you're exactly right. The governor-- and I don't know that Andrew Cuomo has been spectacular. I think he's still kind of a bull in a China shop and all that kind of stuff but your point is that there has been a consistent and a reasonable answer, and they answer all the questions that they're asked. I think that has been the success for these governors. And the same I mean your point about Gina's press conferences, It's not like they're like especially thrilling, but she's consistent.

MARK BLYTH: No, there's now flash. It's just like wow, I mean, I learned something. Right? Why are care homes such a problem. And it turns out this is because care homes are designed with shared bathroom facilities. That's it, right? Very simple. Twelve, six months ago, not even an issue. And now, totally deadly. So it's a bit like dorms, right? Dorms you're sharing, sharing bathrooms, all the rest of it. You don't want to get people on campus. You're going to have to reckon with all this stuff. It's going to cost a fortune, right? So all that kind of stuff, right. And that's thinking through problems like grown-ups, which is kind of a good thing, I guess.

So let me ask you a question in terms of brilliant distractions of the moment: what's Obamagate?

CARRIE NORDLUND: Oh. Well, thank you for that question. So the president, I think, earlier in the week/100 years ago was asked what is Obamagate by a CBS news reporter, and he said, you know what it is. It's obvious what it is. So that's what I would say back to you, is that, you know what it is. It's obvious. No one really knows what Obamagate is. It's a mix of the president, President Obama, as he is leaving, actually leaving the White House, bugged the Oval Office. There's this stuff-- and I don't even think we want to go into the whole Michael Flynn case-- but somehow, he was trying to set Trump up for some fall by telling Trump to get rid of Michael Flynn, which, none of this makes any sense, by the way. And so there's the bugging of the Oval Office.

MARK BLYTH: So the final little thing about this-- so Obama actually authorized the bugging of his office after he vacated it? Is that right?

CARRIE NORDLUND: Yes, he bugged it to listen in on Trump, yeah.

MARK BLYTH: That's not normal, that a departing president would bug his office so that-- who's listening, the FBI?

CARRIE NORDLUND: Maybe Obama with his headset?

MARK BLYTH: So is this true, or is this just a conspiracy theory?

CARRIE NORDLUND: A total conspiracy theory.

MARK BLYTH: OK, so there's no evidence that they did this. OK. Because I thought you were going to come in and say, oh yeah, he bugged his office. I was like, what?

CARRIE NORDLUND: Oh yeah. No, sorry, I should have started there, that there is no evidence for this at all.

MARK BLYTH: Ah, OK. Got it. Right.

CARRIE NORDLUND: Totally spun out of the mind a him, out of the current president.

MARK BLYTH: So I was thinking, the obvious one, of course, is Watergate. All gates come from Watergate, right? So in Watergate, there's a campaign to re-elect the president. They did very naughty things. They got caught on tape doing naughty things. That's Watergate, right?

Now, in Obamagate, then, so the argument is that Obama tapes Trump doing stuff that he hasn't done, according to Trump, and that makes it naughty. Is that it?

CARRIE NORDLUND: Yes, that's right. But it'd later be used, maybe-- I mean, I don't think it ever went this far in President Trump's mind, but maybe to be used against Trump as part of another conspiracy that, they've been talking about pandemic. Obama created a pandemic that would then hurt the president, something like that, or to be used in Joe Biden's campaign. Something--

MARK BLYTH: I can't wait to see what new-- so they're basically, they're going to just tie-- they're going to make Joe Biden Chinese, a Chinese agent, actually. That seems to be the playbook, right? So I'm just waiting from the one where they really just lose the plot completely and say that Biden traveled to China under the control of Xi and brought home a virus.

CARRIE NORDLUND: Like with mushrooms, like in his porcini mushroom packet.

MARK BLYTH: In his porcini mushroom packet, exactly. That's how it'll start.

CARRIE NORDLUND: That's got to be coming, though. That's somehow even scarier. But there's one thing that I wanted to wrap up on that Obamagate, is that on one hand, you while President Obama to show up before Congress and testify, I don't know against what, but against something. Because you can just see him just slicing and dicing the questioners. I mean, this would never happen, and all sorts of different things. But on one hand, you just kind of have that dream in your head, of, let's just do this, and let's see what this trial looks like. It's all of this.

MARK BLYTH: You're on trial for something, and we all know what it is, but we're not going to tell you what it is, because you know what is.

CARRIE NORDLUND: So obvious.

MARK BLYTH: It's sort of like Kafka does Watergate.

CARRIE NORDLUND: [LAUGH] That' a good point. Like, are you a cockroach or not?

MARK BLYTH: Exactly. So speaking-- I'm not doing that as a segue. I'm not going to go speak again of that. But apparently, the Republicans are doing well in California.

CARRIE NORDLUND: Yeah. So there was a special election in California for a Democrat that had to step down. And a Republican won that seat that had not been won for several cycles. And so as political pundits, including myself or close political observers, you want to read everything into every tiny little piece of election that you get. And so part of the takeaway was, of course, maybe the Democrats aren't going to be on some huge tidal wave.

I think it's Memorial Day weekend. We have no clue what's going-- I mean to your point, St. Patrick's Day, we were still kind of naive and thinking the world was normal. So I don't know that there's a whole lot to take away from it except that a Republican took a Democratically-held in California, one you would think would be fairly easily won. All the polls, to just take this to the presidential election for a second, show that Biden is up in the battleground states by pretty big numbers, some close to double digits. But all of this stuff is just fluff. I mean, we--

MARK BLYTH: It's just noise at this point. It's just noise. I mean, so one of the snarky little comments I saw circulating around was that Biden has regained and is holding a very big league with over-65s, who don't like the idea of opening up and letting it rip because they are most likely to die. However, since then are most likely to die, they're likely to have the least effect on the forthcoming election if they're already dead. So at this point, we're back to it nobody knows anything, at this point in time.

The one thing that is just truly remarkable, though, that the Europeans just can't get their head around, is that it's not that Trump can do no wrong, it's just it doesn't matter what he does. It doesn't shake his support numbers. Have you ever see that? As somebody who studies American politics, have you ever seen anything like this?

CARRIE NORDLUND: No, you don't. Because even at the end Nixon, right? I mean, he leaves and wherever the base was in Nineteen-Sixty or Nineteen-Seventy-Two was much different than this base. But this base loves Obamagate. This base loves the firing of these inspector generals. This base loves the people showing up in Lansing, Michigan with their "give me liberty or give me death" stuff.

And so you just get the sense that-- I mean, we talk about polarization all the time. Is not just polarization. This is just a real sense of total frustration with the system. I think the stereotype of Americans is that we're couch potatoes that we don't know anything about civic education, which I think is a part of that is true, is that everyone is just so disenchanted. Like, I've tried. I've showed up to vote. And I get the same stuff, no matter whether it's a Republican or Democrat. This goes back to what we've talking about, burn the system down. And I'm just tired of it. And so why bother to show up? Doesn't matter whose name is on the ballot. I'm going to get the same return.

So in that way I think his base is even more riled up, because I think they feel like they are getting something different. And [INAUDIBLE] a different response.

MARK BLYTH: Or if he feels what we're going back to is a kind of status quo ante in which they still hate, right?

CARRIE NORDLUND: And you get Chris Christie, you get Nikki Haley, and then just these robotic-like figures.

MARK BLYTH: Right. And there's absolutely no way back for people who are now well beyond the pale for that base. So for example, think about Mitt Romney. I mean, Mitt Romney was the candidate not that long ago. Now he can't even find a place in that party.

CARRIE NORDLUND: That's exactly right. I mean, he's not invited to the literal Republican party.

MARK BLYTH: Literally. So you're not allowed to come to the party of the party. Yeah. It's really gone-- it's quite, quite different.

CARRIE NORDLUND: Yeah. Well, what's happening on your side of the world in Europe? I saw one of the headlines from the Financial Times was the creation of the-- France and Germany created a multi-billion dollar fund, hub, but the distribution of it, I mean the--

MARK BLYTH: So I mean, I've been working on a kind of a joke to try and explain this. And a lot of commentators in Europe again the knickers in a twist about whether this is a Hamiltonian moment or not, right? And what they mean by this was, Alexander Hamilton when he basically built the force by the United States, or the second, whichever one it was, assumed the debts of the states on goods borrowing strictly the debt mutualization, right, which is, forget it, forbidden by Article 125 of the Treaty of the European Union. So basically, the EU institutions, the commission, is going to issue its own debt, up to the tune of a billion-- a trillion-- a billion and a half? I can't even remember the number. It's got to be a trillion and a half.

CARRIE NORDLUND: I think it's almost a trillion. It was like--

MARK BLYTH: It was almost a trillion, yeah. They [INAUDIBLE]. But basically, it's a chunk of change. It's at least half a trillion, right? And that's great. And it's going to be used to give relief to COVID-affected economies and then promote green investment. And then it turns into the usual Euro-fudge of, it's going to cure cancer, and it's going to be great for disease, and everything, right? You know everybody gets a bit about it.

Now this can go two ways. Either this is actually the first time that you see a Euro-bond. This is a genuine new instrument. It's not produced by the nation-states themselves. It's sold in third markets. It gives [INAUDIBLE]. That's the Hamiltonian moment.

Alternatively, it's the Hamiltonian moment in this sense. That there's an unexpectedly successful musical that everybody gets totally enraptured with for six months and then gets totally bored of, because it's really not that important. Right? I think it could actually be the other one. That's our European Hamiltonian moment.

Because already what's happening is, the so-called Frugal Four-- who are the Germans, the Dutch, the Swedes, and occasionally the Balts, sometimes the Poles, are then who you want-- are already talking about, well, maybe we should do this as credits. Maybe we should do this less grants, more credits. Right?

And then of course, if you start seeing COVID-affected economies, well, there's a moving target. Because just now, but certainly in Spain, and they've been absolutely hurt, but six months from now, it might be Greece. None of this money is going to be available until Twenty-Twenty-One. Who knows whose the most COVID-affected economy? Could be the Germans! They could end up assuming they're going to get most of it back. So I'm tending towards, this is Hamilton the musical rather than Hamilton the national bank model of what's going on in Europe.

CARRIE NORDLUND: I mean, there's a rift between North and South, as usual. But is there a rift between East and West, just thinking about the Eastern countries?

MARK BLYTH: It's really East versus South. In the sense that, the Eastern European economies, and again, we don't really know why this is the case, and it's begun to change, but in the early part of the current crisis, they were completely bankrupt. I think it was Latvia basically had no cases. Like, none. Right? And that's begun to change. I mean, particularly because you've got Russia next door, is now a total disaster. Hey, heads up: if you want to totally destroy your economy, why not have a strongman leader who doesn't listen to advice, who sidelines public health officials, and basically tells everyone it's all bullshit? Because that's Bolsonaro, and Putin, and Trump. So there you go! Anyway, sidebar. Where were we?

CARRIE NORDLUND: Latvia.

MARK BLYTH: Latvia, that's right. And also Romania and no cases from going to Germany to pick a spot, I guess and then bringing it home. That's begun to shift, to normalize a bit more. But essentially, even in the last crisis, the Eastern countries are basically tied in a supply chain congress to the Germans. The Germans make money through wage suppression and building BMWs that they then sell to the rest of the world. And the Eastern Europeans play the part. The Dutch do the financing, right? So that's the growth model.

And Europe doesn't really fit into that. Southern Europe doesn't really fit into-- the Italians haven't grown in 20 years. They've got an enormous pile of debt. They're getting more. They're never going to pay it back. So the Eastern and Northern European ones know that this is a huge, to use bankers' language, contingent liability on their balance sheets. In other words, it's a bomb that could go off.

So Hamilton moment, bigger version, this is the thin end of the wedge. They're really going to deal with this. They're going to have Euro bonds. Then it'll take a while to get there. And if they do, it's really important because you've given the global economy an alternate safe asset to the dollar. This could be strategically important. However, the chances of that actually coming off--

I actually then go back to Hamilton the musical, right-- is actually vanishingly small. Because most of these things they have done before, there was this Juncker Plan for investment. And it's all basically financial smoke and mirrors. It's kind of big headline numbers. And then when you dig into it, it's a whole web of finance, and it all goes to the Germans and the French anyway. So what's real? So we'll need to wait and see.

CARRIE NORDLUND: That's interesting. I wondered, I was like, so they're setting it up. I mean, there's got to be some incentive for them to say they're not doing this as a charity. So what is it? What's the financial side for them to set it up or the political incentive as well?

MARK BLYTH: There's one other thing happened. The German Constitutional Court came out last week or the week before and said that the ECB can't continue to basically buy whatever it wants and do whatever it wants, because its actions aren't proportionate. And basically, this has made Merkel poop her pants. Because ultimately, what's keeping the Italians on the road is ECB intervention. And if you start throwing the German constitution and basic law at the ECB and say you can't do that, and then the Bundesbank isn't allowed to take part in these operations, then you're bringing that train wreck of Italian debt ever further forward.

So one interpretation is the Karlsruhe decision has forced Merkel to be much more pro-European, pro- Eurobonds, very Hamilton, than she otherwise would be. All of these interpretations are plausible. We don't know just now. We will know in a few months.

CARRIE NORDLUND: Well, I was also thinking about the nationalistic strains in all of this. And obviously thinking about the general COVID response of German-- were they sending stuff to Italy, were they are not sending stuff to Italy-- I mean, doesn't this all kind of fit in terms of more nationalistic feeling, more populist leaders like Bolsonaro? I mean, Putin's been in his bunker. Bolsonaro's been doing these huge rallies. We don't know what Trump wants to do in the big rallies.

MARK BLYTH: And he will do. [INAUDIBLE] he will do.

CARRIE NORDLUND: But I guess the question I had, in my own mind, and then wanted to talk through you is, will we start to see countries turn more inward in response and say, well, we we'll maybe help people or we'll help other countries maybe in Latin America-- this will happen more-- or South America, but we have but we really have to focus ourselves because we're screwed.

MARK BLYTH: I think this is one of the positive sides of the EU. The EU has basically said, no EU country on its own is going to solve-- is going to get a virus at scale. And the notion that any European economy, if it does invent it, is going to patent it and sell it to everybody else after they've treated everyone else in their own country, just not going to happen. So they are actually taking a much more cooperative approach to it.

As for United States, China, everybody else, it's basically national responses. And all this stuff goes back to are we de-globalizing, are we becoming more nationalist. The answer is yes. I mean, we are. But I was on a call the other week, and somebody made the following points: it's really hard to do some stuff. Now let's say, for example, you want to bring pharmaceuticals back home. Let's say it's not even drugs. Let's say it's like simple things like cotton buds. Right? To build a factory to the required specifications to make cotton buds, the licensing and everything else that you need to do for this-- and the tech and the building and the whole lot-- it costs a fortune and takes forever. It's not easy to do this. It's so much easier to keep trying to make them. Because let's put all the plant and equipment is. So if you want to have like a dollar a cotton bond for a while, you can do it, but it's really expensive. And it's not clear they're going to do this. And so much of this is just the weaponized bullshit of politicians. Right? So what's the cause for America's high number? China, China, rinse and repeat, right? So what's real and what's nonsense?

CARRIE NORDLUND: Well, and there's so many interesting articles that came out about, to your point about, why aren't there more masks at the very beginning of things? And that was obviously-- we sent everything to other places. And this is why we this is why it's then so hard to get that stuff out of them. But I mean, I shouldn't worry about the US and China because it will be fine. My parents have been married for 60 years. I'm assuming it's like that, you have your ups, your downs, but you're still together. And you rely on each other. I'm not quite sure why I did that to my parents, but, you know.

I mean, your point about the weaponization, I think, is exactly what President Trump is going to do to candidate Biden, and is just going to be China that whole time. And you just hope that you know on the other side of this in January of next year, that Xi Jinping isn't like, you know what I'm just tired of your crap. No more Q-tips for you.

MARK BLYTH: Yeah, exactly. I mean, that'll be the least of your problems. I mean, I'll give you one example of this. So they opened up production of the Volvo production plant in the United States, which I think is in Jersey, right? And they had to shut it down. And the didn't shut it don't because of COVID. They shut it down because they don't have the parts they need. They can't get the parts they need, right? Things are incredibly interdependent. It's very hard to de-link this stuff.

Even in the United States with NAFTA, right? The reason that NAFTA basically got beat up by Trump and then a marriage exactly the same with a few bells and whistles, is because I think it's something in the audience of 70% of the parts that are for cars assembled in the United States are either made in Canada or Mexico. Just breaking all that and bringing it in whole would break up these companies.

CARRIE NORDLUND: To your point, it's just not living in the real world, that we can suddenly just do all this stuff-- well, tomorrow we'll just start this thing.

MARK BLYTH: I mean, it took 20 years to move all that stuff out. Why do you think it's going to take three months to get it back?

CARRIE NORDLUND: Yeah, On a slightly different note, but similar on car manufacturing, I didn't realize Elon Musk was such a total jerk. So he opened up his plant in California as part of this "give me liberty or give me freedom"--

MARK BLYTH: Give me profits or give me death. God forbid he has to lose any money. [INAUDIBLE] he likes a good conspiracy theory as well. And now there's a movie for everyone to watch. So have you seen Plandemic?

CARRIE NORDLUND: No, I haven't.

MARK BLYTH: Neither have I. I was hoping you were going to talk to me about it.

CARRIE NORDLUND: I have not. But I did see Parasite. I think these are different movies

MARK BLYTH: They are definitely different movies. No I do like the idea-- there's something that's funny. I mean, Americans in particular have always loved conspiracy theories in a way that no other country does. Right? And this notion of the deep state, as where it all begins in a sense, right?

Now, the weird thing about conspiracy theories is it assumes a level of Machiavellian brilliance. I mean, these are the people who organized this have been plotting it for years, no word has ever got out, anybody who steps out of line disappears out of a plane or something like this, blah, blah, blah, everything's flawlessly executed, it's incredibly dangerous, unpredictable things like pathogens are made and weaponized so that we all end up driving Priuses or whatever the goal is, right?

And at the same time, if you ask the same people, do you think the government is competent? They'll be like, you've got to be kidding me! They're a bunch of bozos! Right? Well, hang on a minute. Didn't you just say that they're [MIMICS BULLETS] Yes. OK, but they're a bunch of bozos at the same time. Yeah, of course. And like, OK. That really just doesn't do it. I mean, nobody seems to join those two halves together very well.

CARRIE NORDLUND: That's such a good point. Like, you're so sophisticated, so it puts a scheme into play 30 years in the past. We can't get grandma a Social Security check.

MARK BLYTH: No, never my grandma. I mean basically, the fact that all of Florida's this benefit system collapses overnight is proof of the conspiracy for the efficiency of government. Right? You're like, no, no, no, no, no. Some things just don't go together. What else have we got?

CARRIE NORDLUND: Well, on this point about holding these two different thoughts in your head-- so this is from last week, and John Oliver did this really funny segment on it, so I want to give him credit. But Axl Rose and Steve Mnuchin, on Twitter-- Axl Rose posted something about "live and let die" from the Arizona factory. And Steve Mnuchin that wrote back something like, well, what have you done for your country lately?

And then he put the American flag, but actually it was the Liberian flag. And so then Axl rose tweeted back something about the GDP of Liberia. It was actually a very sophisticated response. And I just kind of thought, go Axl Rose. Man, you have some really great responses, showing our Secretary of the Treasury that that was the wrong emoji to use.

MARK BLYTH: Yes, definitely the wrong emoji to use. Although it could be the case that once he's assessed up the entire economy for him and his friends, we might have the GDP of Liberia. You can view it as a kind of Freudian slip in there, that we are actually afraid of.

CARRIE NORDLUND: Yeah, that is a really, really good point. And also one last thread last week too. A lot of people are wondering who was the toilet flusher from the Supreme Court.

MARK BLYTH: Yes, I've been up all week worrying about that that. [INAUDIBLE]

CARRIE NORDLUND: I can tell from the look of exhaustion on your face. And a lot of people made a good point: the lawyers would never do this. They're not relaxed and just hanging out. So it's going to be one of the justices. And a lot of court watchers thought because Justice Breyer often gets up during when it's live, he'll go back and forth, that it was him. And you just kind of thought for a second, you know what, he's a man of a certain age, and he just does it. He's got job security. It's all good with him.

MARK BLYTH: Actually, given that his name's Breyers, I always have this picture of him basically getting up, going to sit in the toilet with a big tub of ice cream.

CARRIE NORDLUND: Yes maybe that's it.

MARK BLYTH: You know, sort of like, God, I can't stand that Thomas, I've had enough of his crap, ice cream, ice cream. Then he goes back and passes judgment on the weighty things of the day.

I am going to leave us with one last thing. And it's our favorite other favorite couple, not Axl Rose and the treasury secretary. It is of course Meghan and Harry.

CARRIE NORDLUND: Oh, please.

MARK BLYTH: Now, they are in California. Right? They went from Vancouver to California. That means he at least is going to have to get a driver's license, which means basically, there's no proxy for this. You have to go stand in line with everybody else. Right?

CARRIE NORDLUND: That's what I wondered. Yeah.

MARK BLYTH: So that's going to be awesome. Because if you want to go hang with Harry, just hang out at the DMV. Eventually he's going to show up.

CARRIE NORDLUND: Like in Santa Monica. Wait, do you drive on both of the road? I'm assuming you can.

MARK BLYTH: Yes, I can. So can anyone. It's actually not that difficult. You just follow what everybody else is doing.

CARRIE NORDLUND: You also drive a manual transmission. Well--

MARK BLYTH: I don't here. I can't. I to go on one yes because that's just using totally different parts of-- because it's all-- So anyway, my point was, I wonder if Harry is going to have to learn now how to drive on the right side of the road.

MARK BLYTH: Yeah, but it's dead easy. I mean, basically, you've got an automatic car, so you're not going to do anything with your feet, this thing called a clutch, just in case people don't know. And then the driving test here-- I remember I did a New York driver's test when I first got here. And the British driver's test is unbelievable. Everybody fails about three times. Yeah, you see it in Germany, you do a huge amount of homework, you have to get it as a real written test. It's like seven, eight questions. Right? You have to get a really high percentage.

And then the driving test is shit like in a manual car, doing a reverse [INAUDIBLE]. And if you don't hold your hands exactly the right way all the way through and check your mirror at some points, you fail. Here, it was literally somebody got beside me and said, go park over there. Drive around the block. You're done. I was like, I think Harry's got this one covered. And I think he-- didn't he drive tanks or something at one point? I'm sure he'll be fine.

CARRIE NORDLUND: No, I was mostly curious about that. Can you just send a proxy? And then also the two, British driving, American driving. One other thing we put on our radar for next time is Supreme Court cases. So the big one will be decided by the time we next talk. And there's some interesting stuff having to do with the president but also big social issues as well. But we should be hearing about those decisions, I think, in the next four weeks.

MARK BLYTH: In that case, then, in two weeks' time we will discuss weighty matters of state.

CARRIE NORDLUND: Yes. And not just Prince Harry getting a driver's license, though that is important.

MARK BLYTH: Oh, that is important as well. All right, until next time.

CARRIE NORDLUND: Sounds good. Thank you all for listening. See you next time.

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